Gears

Will the Gears Keep Churning?

Yesterday, I was invited for a cup of tea at our neighbors and later two friends drove here from Malmö and I made lunch. When they left, I was all by my lonesome again. For the first time in a long, long while, I don’t have any trips planned. Oh, wait. I do have a trip to L.A. planned. But that’s in three months.

Living in this tiny, ancient fishing village, without much social interaction is interesting. Aside from the cashier at the local grocery store, my first week here has been like living in a vacuum. Walking along the beach today in fabulous spring-ish weather, I felt so far removed from all the stuff going on in the world right now. Geographically speaking.. This suits me perfectly as I am in the final stages of finishing my new book and definitely don’t want to be too distracted.

But since I’m a huge fan (and long-time subscriber) of the New York Times online edition and listen religiously to both The Daily Podcast and the BBC’s Global News Podcast,  I’m pretty much always tuned in and up to date with the latest events. And boy-oh-boy, there’s certainly no shortage sensationalistic news coverage right now! Doomsayers think the coronavirus is going to force the U.S. economy to a grinding halt. And since the U.S. economy is so intertwined and financially dependent on the Chinese economy, they preach the whole world is heading for an unprecedented recession. Maybe even depression. Interesting.

Personally, I don’t subscribe to that kind of negativity. Also, it implies a very simplistic worldview. The world is a friggin’ complex place and it’s literally impossible for me to even wrap my head around how the perfectly ripe, organically grown avocado I bought the other day, wound up in this little ancient fishing village way up in northern Europe.

We tend to define the world’s economic well-being by how often and how much Americans are willing to use their credit cards. How often they visit a car dealership, a realtor, their local mall and now more than ever before, the online shopping portals. I’m no expert, but I’m fairly sure that most Americans are fully prepared to max out their credit cards if they just feel that their personal finances are reasonably stable – and, of course, the trajectory of the US economy – which, by the way, has been booming for close to a decade now (long before Trump arrived). Yes, if they feel uncertain, most credit card holders will refrain from shopping excessively. And that will for sure have an impact on a whole chain of production-related, supply chain disruptive events on a global scale.

But in actuality, the world consists of so many, many economies, most of which I think will do just fine even if the consequences of the coronavirus impacts the G7 nations the hardest financially (and psychologically). Our local market outside of Hoi An in Vietnam for example, will probably not even notice should the US economy take a nosedive. There will probably be fewer tourists, sure, but most of the shopkeepers at outdoor markets in Asia (and probably anywhere in the world) cater to locals, anyway.

So, while the giant gears may currently be churning sluggardly to the point that they almost seem frozen, for the vast majority of people around the world, it’ll be business as usual. I might have to sacrifice eating avocados for a while, though.

The gears are Spanish, by the way.
Tags: